承认吧：我们都不明白《Flappy Bird》成功的原因

【手游网译稿，转载请注明出处】

手游网注：《Flappy Bird》自火了以后，关于它的讨论就不绝于耳，尽管目前游戏已经被下架，但模仿品层出不穷，甚至有几款还登上了一些地区的排行榜。似乎很多人都希望通过对《Flappy Bird》的探索和挖掘寻找可以复制的成功模式，网上也出现了许许多多的分析。但是，我们真的明白《Flappy Bird》为什么火吗？或许我们并不明白。原文作者Itzhak Wolkowicz。

近期一夜爆红（又突然下架）高人气独立游戏《Flappy Bird》俨然在游戏界称为了一个现象级产品，人们都对其议论纷纷。在该游戏占领IOS市场的随后几周，无时无刻都会听到人们谈论这个游戏。我的同事们都在说“我们应该从这个款游戏中学习XXXX……”，而我的朋友们则会问我“为什么你没做出这样的游戏？”。于是乎，《Flappy Bird》突然就成为了比肩《愤怒的小鸟》或者《糖果粉碎传奇》的作品，但它与《怒鸟》或是《糖果》不同，它是一款独立游戏，仅由一人完成——阮阿东（Dong Nguyen），一位来自越南的29岁游戏开发者。

《Flappy Bird》的成功催生了一系列探讨它的文章，这些文章的标题诸如：

阴谋论：Flappy bird 网络推手的炒作?

爆红手游《Flappy bird》模式值得追捧么？

《Flappy Bird》登顶美App Store免费榜的背后

类似上述等等的文章，还有很多。而实际上，如果你在搜索引擎中用“可以从Flappy Bird中学到”作为关键词来搜索，你甚至可以发现一个专属的博客页面，名为“教堂可以从Flappy Bird和CVS中学到哪些？”（What the Church can learn from CVS and Flappy Bird）。当然，可以肯定的说，在这款游戏火了之后写出的作为热点炒作的一系列的相关文章，至少在一定程度上可以影响SEO/ SMO的价值。我也认同这类一夜爆红的游戏难免令人费解，毕竟每个人都会问：怎么做到的？

别误会我的意思。“怎么做到的？”是个很合理的提问，它总是能透过种种成功的故事来为你指点迷津。但在我看来，很显然在这个事件中，“怎么做到的？”是个贬义提问，并非是来自对这款游戏的虚心学习和挖掘，更多的是出于对它的质疑：一个默默无闻的越南开发者，没有市场推广营销经费的支持，怎么会登上iOS排行榜榜首？并且这款游戏的模仿痕迹明显——游戏的画面和音效很明显是受到《超级玛丽》的影响，游戏玩法与《无尽奔跑者》（Endless Runner）相差无几，为什么它就火了呢？关于Flappy Bird的成功有不同观点，但在我看来实际上都并不成立：

1、人们玩Flappy Bird是因为这游戏不拘一格地挑战了现今游戏设计者公认的理念

但是Flappy Bird真的有那么特别吗？我承认，如果一个由大厂商开发的作品，没有升级系统、成就系统、或者递进式的难度，那一定令人吃惊。但这是一款独立游戏，独立游戏常常出现这种简单的模式，不关注收入和用户留存，只是出于做游戏的乐趣。对于那些“编程马拉松”式制作出来的游戏产品，把它们的成功归结到品质上并不是太有说服力。（手游网注：编程马拉松（hackathon）是指目前国外流行的一种编程形式，原文主要指自由无限制的编程行为）。

2、Flappy Bird具有与热卖大作相似的属性

的确，它画面不俗（当然是对于像素的风格而言），界面友好（图形颜色鲜艳有趣），并且开发者此前有积累过类似游戏的研发经验（虽然没有如今这么成功）—— Flappy Bird是基于作者从前积累下的知识。上述的是确实的，但Flappy Bird恐怕还没有独特到能与热卖大作相媲美。（手游网注：原文提到的“热卖大作”例如愤怒的小鸟、你画我猜、糖果粉碎传奇等）

3、Flappy Bird通过某些作弊行为才蹿升到榜首的

实际上这款游戏在半年前就已经发布。在今年1月份的时候突然爆红的确会让人产生一些怀疑。但对于该游戏可能通过作弊手段来上位（例如刷榜、刷分，手游网注），那么为什么阮阿东要选择在半年后刷？如果阮阿东追求的是名利、金钱和荣誉，他更没有理由在游戏最火爆的的时候将这款游戏下架。

4、Flappy Bird是借助病毒营销，突破某个阈值后，就会迎来爆发

毫无疑问，如果要借助病毒营销的力量，势必要在前期进行大规模的市场营销行为。但我们并没有看到Flappy Bird在前期在营销上有何举动，很神秘，对不对？

放到2011年《Piou Piou vs. Cactus》（一款和Flappy Bird很相似的作品，手游网注）这款游戏发布的时候，上述观点可能很有用。Flappy Bird看起来就像一款对《Piou Piou vs. Cactus》的复制（即便阮阿东表示没有参考该游戏）。并且《Piou Piou vs. Cactus》就是那么一款“不拘一格地挑战了现今游戏设计者公认的理念”的作品，但是这已经是一年前的事情了，有谁能解释为什么Flappy Bird的模式没能让《Piou Piou vs. Cactus》在当时火起来呢？

Piou Piou vs. Cactus

所以作为从业者，我们可以从“Flappy Bird现象”中学到什么呢？也许，如果我们放下对Flappy Bird的关注，就会开始关注到一个事实：我们是如此迷恋它。

“从来就没有完美的游戏。”或许透过整个事件我们能看到这点。即便抄袭模仿的文化能催生一大批类似《糖果粉碎传奇》《开心农场》等克隆产品（包括现在数不清的克隆《Flappy Bird》的手机游戏），但这不意味着就能诞生Zynga、King这样的公司，或是下一个阮阿东。对于推出一款热门大作的途径：从个人层面上说，是需要不断的努力和探索的；而在公司层面上说，需要建立起一个顶级团队、积累无数经验。这是可能是所谓“成功法则”中可行的部分，而剩下的就是靠运气了。

手游网总结：

对于《Flappy Bird》的火爆，一时间国内外都有无数的研究，但在手游网看来，无非四个字“机缘巧合”，或者就像原文作者所言，没有所谓的“成功法则”，靠的是经验积累，更主要的是运气。

（英文原文请点击下页）

The recent success (and sudden demise) of the highly popular indie-game ‘Flappy Bird’ started yet a new gaming phenomena – ‘people that talk about flappy bird’. Not even a single day passed during the following weeks of his iOS chart dominance where I haven’t heard people talking about the game. Co-workers were saying things such as ‘we should learn from this game’; friends asked me why haven’t I created such a game myself. Suddenly Flappy Bird was perceived as the next Angry Birds or Candy Crush Saga, but unlike those - it was the work of a one man - Dong Nguyen, a 29 years old Vietnamese game developer.

The game rapid success spawned many articles about it - the web is filled with articles such as:

“What Marketers Can Learn from Flappy Bird?”

“6 Lessons Every Entrepreneur Can Learn From Flappy Bird (R.I.P.)”

“What can executives learn from viral game Flappy Bird?” (metaphorically, which is rather funny)

“What Flappy Bird’s success can teach the game industry”

“Flappy Bird: What lessons can be learned””.

And many, many more. In fact, if you Google the term ‘flappy birds can learn’ you’ll even find a blog-post named “What the Church can learn from CVS and Flappy Bird”. While it’s safe to assume most of the articles, notably those that were written just after the game topped the charts, were at least somewhat influenced by the SEO/SMO value of writing about a popular news item – I think most can agree that the overnight success of the game is puzzling. Everyone is asking - How?

Don’t get me wrong – ‘how?’ is a legitimate question. It’s always advisable to learn from success stories. However – is this what we’re seeing here? It seems to me that the ‘how?’ here is a bit more pronounced, and comes not necessarily from a wish to learn, but more as an accusation. When an unknown Vietnamese developer manages to get to the top iOS charts, without a marketing budget - something just doesn’t seem right. As the actual gameplay is unoriginal, the graphics and sounds seems to be heavily influenced by Mario, and the game doesn’t deviate from the ‘endless runner’ formulas we’ve seen so far - things seems even weirder. The opinions regarding FB success varies, and, in my view - doesn’t really hold water:

“it (FB) flies in the face of what every game designer knows at this point.”

But is it really that unique? While I agree it would be a surprise to see a game without upgrades, achievements or an intelligent progression curve - created by a large gaming studio – this is not the case. The indie space is filled with games with simple gameplay, zero care for monetization and user retention - just plain fun. Attributing the game success to qualities that are found in just about every hackathon-produced game doesn’t seem too convincing.

It has attributes that are shared with ‘mega-hits’: it’s polished (although, within its very small scope and simple graphics), friendly (the graphics are ‘fun’, bright) and its creator has experience with previous, less successful titles - FB is based on accumulated knowledge from previous games. All of this is true, but far from being unique to mega-hits.

It has cheated his way to the top - the fact that the game was released half a year ago, and started gaining major traffic only by January does make one wonder. Too bad that this type of arguments goes both ways - If Dong Nguyen used bots, why only now? And if all he wanted was fame, money and glory, he had absolutely no reason to remove the game while it peaks.

It’s a viral breakthrough, once it reached critical mass - it became a hit. No doubt about that - but how did it reach critical mass without massive marketing campaign? This is the secret, isn’t it?

These arguments could have worked great when ‘Piou Piou vs. Cactus’ was released in 2011. Flappy Bird seens like an almost exact copy of that game (even if it wasn’t intended to be one) . Piou Piou ‘files in the face of what every game designer knows’, just as well, and it did it years ago. Can anyone explain why Flappy Bird didn’t work back then?

So can we learn anything, as an industry, from the Flappy Bird phenomena? Probably, if we stop focusing on the game itself, and start focusing on the fact that we are so fixated with it.

Maybe the lesson here is that there is no perfect game, and that that the copy-iteration culture that spawned so many Farmville and Candy Crush Saga clones (and now FB clones as well) won’t necessarily create the next Zynga, King, or even the next Dong Nguyen for that sake. The road to the next mega-hit, at the individual level, is trying and trying again. At the studio level - it’s creating the best team possible and gain experience. This is as close to a hit-producing formula as one can get, the rest is luck.